Re: i do this crap all the time... TT BB
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I think calling the river here is -EV but +sanity and you won't have the chance to punch your monitor in the case he shows you a bluff.
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Like everything else we work towards in this game I think the +sanity will come from making the right move EV wise no matter what the results of one paticular hand are.
Can someone help me do the math to figure out the the right move. I think "at best" are odds are 7:10 being beaten here. 7 times he shows the K and 3 times two pair or a bluff. By calling the river 7 out of 10 times we lose 1 bet and 3 out of ten times we win X bets (X being all the bets that went into pot on previous rounds which we would forfeit by not calling). So how do we set up a proportion to find out how many bets need to be in the pot to make calling nuetral EV.
(7/10)(-1) + (3/10)(+X)=0 (I have no idea if this is right)
If it is correct however the answer would then be X=2.3 bets. So everytime the pot is bigger than 2 bets it would be correct to call even knowing you will lose 7/10 times. That can't be right. Can it??
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