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Old 01-13-2005, 02:18 AM
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Default Re: droolie pumping a draw

Vastly overplayed. Capping with a flush draw on a paired board against 3 opponents is only slightly +EV, and then, only +EV if the opponent is a complete nutso LAG. Remember, when an opponent shows this degree of interest, it cuts your total outs down: you are not happy with the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] of whatever else he holds in his hand. Given the remote posisbility of TT as well, you have to devalue the strength of your draw by maybe 20%, which would take you from 9 outs to 7.2 outs, and make a flop cap marginally +EV.

On the turn, betting is clearly the worst of the plays. UTG will bet. You have callers trapped, and now have quite a few more outs. With 3 callers and, for the sake of discussion, ~13 outs (again, devalued because of the paired board), you are 2.5:1 to come in, so you need everyone to call for a bet/raise to be profitable. Check. Let UTG bet; if everyone calls, checkraise and allow him to 3-bet. But don't bet here: betting is the worst of the options.

On the river, I'd checkraise and call a 3-bet, and it's really not even close. Get as much of everyone elses money into this pot as possible without risking much of your own.

On this hand I'd say you played preflop, and perhaps the flop, correctly.

Rob
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