View Single Post
  #68  
Old 01-10-2005, 07:13 PM
Kevin J Kevin J is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 648
Default Re: Hand to Talk About

I think I had the wrong thread up and posted this somewhere I didn't intend to:

I don't think the rule: "it is better to bet in first position as an underdog, than to check/call as a bigger underdog", applies to the bb here. In other words, I don't think betting a pair of jacks has much value, since there are more likely hands Mason would call or re-raise and win with (any ace, KK, QQ, JJ), than call and lose with (99, TT?).

I know there are bad players who play 80-160, but Mason is still risking 3 bets to win (maybe), 1 more. He would have to think the bb is betting a hand he shouldn't AND would pay off a raise.

FWIW- In trying to put the bb on a hand, I think it's likely he flopped a set of deuces and was going to c/r the turn, but became worried he'd miss a bet after he makes an under-full. Or.. If he has an ace, it's AJ or A2s, and he tried twice to go for 3-bets. Or.. He has some hopeless hand he wouldn't call a raise with anyway. Of course, I'm probably wrong and he could also have been betting a worse ace. But I'm hearing a lot about how strong Mason's hand is, but very little in the way of convincing arguments about what hands his opponent could have that would make raising the river such a +EV play.
Reply With Quote