Re: Hand to Talk About
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He has a jack. From what I have seen lately, thats about the only hand it could be.
FJM
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Seems highly unlikely to me that he has a jack other than AJ. But let's assume for a moment that you're right: He has TJ, QJ, or KJ. If Mason raises, do you seriously think the BB will call?
Mason is the EP raiser this hand. Virtually every legitimate PF raising hand (AJ-AK; AA, KK, QQ, JJ) has QJ-type hands totally buried. The BB knows this and would almost certainly muck to a raise. Given that reality, why would the BB bet a QJ-type hand on the river in this situation? There's no way Mason is laying down a better hand at this point, and he'd know it. If the BB holds JT, he's played the river very poorly.
My bottom line is this: even if you think he has a jack (but you can't be certain, of course), a raise has virtually no value. If he has a J, he'll fold. If you're wrong, you'll have to pay him off if he 3-bets, costing you two bets. Hence, a raise is a -EV play...if you read him for a J.
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