[willie24]

there are 16 ways he could have 75. there are 16 ways he could have 25. there are 12 ways he could have a set, and there are 27 ways he could have either 68 36 or 34 for two pair.

this is 39 hands i beat and 32 i lose to. i'm not going to count missed draws because he is very unlikely to call a river raise with one even if it includes a pair. it might be more accurate to assume he folds 25 and 36 every time. then its 30 i beat and 16 i lose to.

the thing is though- i can't see him playing 2 pair this way 100% of the time. i can see him playing either a set or a straight this way a much higher % of the time.

thus i think i am ahead much less often than 90% the time...though it still might be higher than 67% of the time. i think its closer than you think though.