[BruceZ]

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i repeat myself, but he didn't explain why the formula he used is or should be right.

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Then we agree on that.


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as for justifying it, i can, although i don't think it will be satisfactory to you. a reasonable way to solve this particular problem is to take (1 - probability of hitting on the turn) and multiply it by (1 - probability of hitting on the river given you missed on the turn) to get the probability of missing on both the turn and river, and subtract from 1 to get the probability of failing to miss on both the turn and the river. well, 1 - (1 - x)(1 - y) = 1 - [1 - x - y + xy] = x + y - xy, and it always will. the fact that the original poster used this formula without explaining how or why he derived it (and i suspect someone else derived it and he just saw the end product) doesn't make him wrong.

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Well, it does if if the bet required him to show his work in deriving this formula. Rereading the original bet, it said "An acquaintance bet me that I don't know how to calculate how flop outs correspond to odds. " So if "calculating" simply means getting the correct answer by some formula which is not algebraically derived, then fine. If it means showing the correct derivation for this formula, which I thought was the point of this, then he did not show it, as you seem to agree. I never claimed he lost the bet. That is between him and his acquaintance.


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You also cannot justify the 9/47 + 8/46. This corresponds to nothing.[ QUOTE ]


not only can i not justify it, i can't even find it.

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Typo on my part, meant 9/47 + 9/46.



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ok, perhaps i should have considered my words more carefully. how about "whereas i would have used a different formula than you did, because i feel that mine gives a clearer insight into the techniques involved and permits a more straightforward and intuitive description of what each term means, your formula is algebraicly equivalent to mine and will produce the correct answer"?

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Perfect. I already said that his formula produces the right answer and can be derived from mine by algebra. The only additional thing I said was that he arrived at his formula via 2 canceling errors, which you laughed at and called "silly". I make this claim because a) he didn't show any algebra or any valid derivation of his equation, and b) from vast experience in showing people how to do this problem countless times over the years, I know the standard errors when I see them, and I saw two of them here. From my experience, and from his subsequent statements, this is almost certainly the correct interpretation. I pointed out these errors so that the student would more clearly think about these kinds of problems in the future. That doesn't rate your assenine responses.

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well, i do post things that are silly. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

why should i consider such things before i make a huge ass of myself? will that make it easier?

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Let me put it this way, you will treat the poster's on this forum with the respect they deserve, or you will not be part of this forum in the future. I see you are new. Learn which way is up before ridiculing those who know what they are doing.