[adanthar]

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For example, when the SB bets 40 on the flop, it's pretty clear that he is unlikely to have anything worthwhile. He cold-called a raise from the SB and put out this pathetic little post-oak feeler bet on the flop. If you were heads-up with him, then a healthy raise to allow him to make a big calling mistake would be the best line. But you have a late position caller to contend with here, and this flop is very dangerous for your hand. I would just call the bet on the flop and see what the button does. The button is likely to raise, but there's a chance he could telegraph the strength of his hand with the size of his raise. The bigger the raise, the more likely it is that the SB will fold and the more correct it will be for you to call. But a medium raise by the button and a call by the SB puts you in a situation where you are frequently beat, and if not, you are offering the others a great price to draw at a hand that you may have to pay off on the river due to the size of the pot. This is an example of reverse implied odds, and I would be willing to fold on the flop if I didn't like the way the hand was developing after I called the $40 flop bet.

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...whoa.

Button's going to autoraise if you call? No he isn't. This is a $5, even if it is at Stars. He could call that bet with KQ, one heart because he feels like it, he could call down with tens because he feels like it, or you could raise and he could fold both of those because, well, he feels like it.

Not only that, but this little weak lead from UTG+1 is very often *exactly* that flush draw, the other option being a weak ace or absolutely nothing.

Now, the raise *amount* is wrong, for two reasons. First, it makes the pot too big. Second, anybody that makes these little bets with something they want to see a turn with will always see a turn no matter what you raise (which leads to endless posts about being unable to beat bad players waah waah [insert site here] is rigged, but that's another story.] A decent raise here is to about 200; now you have enough to make a near pot sized bet heads up on the turn and still fold to a CR.

The call of the minreraise is also wrong, because now you have a dilemma. It is likely you are beat. However, UTG+1 appears to be dead money or a draw (90% chance, give or take), the pot is huge, and you may have enough equity in it to push regardless (or the button may be overplaying AJ or another AK). This is, as you say, a push or fold (if you call, obviously, you must fold the turn.)

But the one thing you can't do is call him assuming the button will raise. The button doesn't have to do a thing; for all you know he had 22 and is now properly autofolding. Meanwhile, you *are* pricing in the draw, and worse, passing up about a billion chips because if UTG+1 is a fish with A7 he will happily call off his whole stack when the pot gets bigger.