[Myrtle]

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Some thoughts on sports and hot-shooter theory:


Hitting a baseball is different than making a basket.

In baseball, you are facing a couple of different pitchers everyday. In this 1-on-1 matchup there are some pitchers who are going to give certain batters fits...and it doesn't have to just be definable like 'left-handed curve-ball specialists'. Some pitchers styles or even psychological approaches (example: "he thinks I'll waste a pitch away with an 0-2 count....and rarely expects me to fire a heater on the inside corner in this situation") can give some batters fits even if the rest of the league is lighting them up for 7 runs a game.

In hoops, you're always shooting at the same hoop. Same height, generally the same types of shots, etc. So it is easier to compare the success rate of a 'hot-shooter' with the streaks one would normally expect to happen for a 50% shooter in a computer simulated game.
Of course, defensive schemes change and players get more intelligent and adjust as well so perhaps it really ISN'T that much different than baseball.
Lebron James is a much better player this year because he is improving his shot-selection. When the opposition tries to double-team him he is getting MUCH better at turning down a bad shooting opportunity and finding an open teammate. This, in turn will give him more good shooting opportunities on later possessions as teams are forced to guard the other scorers.
So....in basketball...it's not JUST about "take the shot. make the shot." It's a bit more complex than that.

I could be a 60% shooter in a series of games against junior-high kids...but if you put me on the floor against a bunch of D-1 players I would be lucky if I could make many shots at all even with an offense specifically designed to make me the premier scorer on the team.

However, I think even I could score a few points in the NBA if I had Michael Jordan or Lebron James or John Stockton trying to dish me the ball.

See?? Change the teammates or change the opposition or just a change in the defense within the course of the game effects the shooting percentages.


Additionally, there are some players who don't do terribly well when there is pressure and others who tend to rise to the occasion MORE when the pressure is greater.

Perhaps this is all within the mathematical norm....but I do believe that some players have a lesser chance of getting a base-hit or making an important basket when the game is on the line simply because of the psychological differences in the situation.

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Bob,

Bear with me, as I'm still trying to figure out whether we're in agreement or disagreement!!

LOL [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]