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Old 12-30-2004, 10:32 AM
knsmith85 knsmith85 is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: Key holdem odds to memorize

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Derek,

The chance of flopping a two pair which uses both your cards is 1 in 50, and the chance of flopping trips is about 1 in 77.

2 pair: 9*44/ncr(50,3)=.0202

trips: 3*2*44/ncr(50,3)=.013


Practically speaking, the odds of flopping 2 pair or trips are so low as to be negligible. This is why playing hands like J5o is unprofitable even from the small blind with 8 limpers and a guaranteed check from BB.

Whenever you think to yourself, "Hey, there's always the chance I flop 2 pair," toss your cards in the muck.

gm

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite follow how you get that percentage for 2-pair. The combination on bottom makes sense to me, but I don't really get the numbers on top. Aren't there 6 cards that help you at first, 3 for the second, and on the third card (note: Order shouldn't matter here) any of 43 cards (52 - hole cards - card #1 - card #2 - 4 cards that would give you full house = 43) will do.

So for that, I'd get 6*3*44/NCR (50,3), or 18*44 / 19604 = 0.0404.

Where am I going wrong?

Thanks,
Kyle
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