Re: EV of PartyPoker bad beat jackpot?
I believe there is no easy way to calculate frequency for hitting the JP. The best way is to observe over time how often it hits.
Playing the JP is EV+ whenever:
JP > 0.5 x (ave number of hands between JPs) / 0.7
In the above equation 0.5 represents the JP drop and 0.7 represents the fraction of the JP actually awarded (20% to reseed and 10% adminstrative fee).
So if the JP hits every 200,000 hands, the JP needs to be greater than $142,000 to show a profit.
Paul
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