Re: Turn Decision
Worm, I think you are right on with the flop play...why raise the flop and get popped by the sb when he 3 bet pre-flop...you know he has a good holding...he wanted it head up and to charge max for flop...
second, not only is the turn bad for him it is bad for you too...you have a straight draw with 2 weak over cards that a probably no good...you also stare down a board pair on turn with top flop card as the paired card...and a 3 flush.
the dope taking the shot at the pot is trying to pick it up..the thing is, the sb knows that is a bad card, and somebody might have a 10, and not lay it down on the flop...certainly not the sb though. he raised pre flop with a premium holding...BB, maybe, and he might be waiting to spring the trap.
If you raise the turn, you have to bet the river...to win it..that is the problem... if you bust, you will win with only the turn bettor having nothing and a pure bluff on the turn...if he has a ten or a flush you will probably get re raised, or called immediately..
I think the SB is done with the hand...The BB may or may not fold... he is calling with any spade..
I would say Turn Bettor has 1 spade in hand and is trying to win it right there...if he has a spade he calls your raise.
If you raise the turn you almost have no shot to win the pot if he has a made hand...and calls the river...
you are thinking trips or flush is all he can call a raise with right...what if he has nut flush draw...misses and catches a pair...will he fold to a bet on river if he makes a low pair.. say A6 spades ???
very interesting...I might raise given your experience with these players and thier feelings toward you...
I say this BB is calling with a spade.. if SB had AA KK or QQ with a spade he bets turn..and grits his teeth...
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]I am a little fried thinking about it after a 10 hour session and listening to you...
let me know what you think..
schmidts31
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