[Megenoita]

Hey Fish,

I know how you feel. I have gone through this same experience. There are two likely truths that apply to your situation. One, you haven't played many hands. Two, you are not a very good player. I say these things out of my being in the same position as you, not to insult you. Let me explain...

I read Super System and TOP, got a little bankroll and started at .5/1, played for about 1,500 hands and made enough to have a try at 1/2. I played 20,000 hands at 1/2 in a month, and broke even (slight loss). I had some great ups, some great downs, and some stable times. I couldn't figure out why I was breaking even...aren't I better than the average joe? There was a revolutionary breakthrough in my game...I got PT stats on my villains (importing the stats from Poker Tracker to your table while you play), and I read SSHE. Reading my opponents made a big difference. Many times you should call down a raiser with just a high card or low pair--if they are a major LAG. Or, you should fold to a raise with TPTK--if the villain is a very tight, unimaginative player. Every situation changes according to your read on your opponent. The game is about reading your opponent and what hands he might have. Ever since learning more about this, my next 20,000 hands have had me at +2.16 BB/100, and I'd like to think that I've had a bit of a down month even with those results. Now, with 40,000 hands under my belt, I can tell you that I still don't know what my win rate is, but I do know that I'm a better player than before because I'm making better reads.

The two comments I made earlier...the first, that you don't have enough hands played, is obvious from your question. If you play tens of thousands of hands, breaking even doesn't surprise you. I love breaking even; it's so much better than the downswings. The other day I lost almost 100 BBs in an hour and a half, missing draws and being drawn out. Yesterday, I played 2,000 hands and was down for 1,500 of them almost 50 BBs, only to win 100 BBs in the last hour for a decent day at the end. The game is so full of swings that you really have to just rely on how you are playing, not the results. The way you get confident in how you are playing is by reading what you should (TOP, SSHE, Small Stakes forum at least), talking with the pros, and by being rewarded during play-noticing that your call down with K high is rewarded by the LAG who had J3o-things like that.

Hope this helps,
M