Re: One edit
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You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.
Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.
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No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.
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How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".
So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.
First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0
First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.
.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761
Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.
.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197
With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.
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Ok, what I would do in this situation. I would limp with the A4 and try and see a flop. Why? Because I am probably a better postflop player than the opponent. If he pushes, then there is nothing I can do and I just lost 150. It does give me information that he will push when I limp which I could use later.
If he doesn't raise, now there are two ways I can win his blind, by making a hand or stealing the pot. After the flop, you will be much more likely to be able to steal the pot and it will cost you a lot less to do so.
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