Re: So why does runner runner straight count as 1.5 outs?
Someone did the algebra for this a couple days ago, here's my attempt at a recreation:
With 3 connected cards (567, TJQ, etc):
You have 8 cards that give you an OESD (4/8 or 9/K)(8 outs)
You have 8 cards that give you a gutshot (3/9 or 8/A) (4 outs)
Or, a 17% chance at having 8 outs = 1.36 outs plus a 17% chace at 4 outs = .68 = ~2, discounted to 1.5
With 1-gapped cards (467, 9JQ, etc)
You have 4 cards that make an OESD (a 5 or T) (8 outs)
You have 8 cards that give a gutshot (a 3/8 or 8/K)(4 outs)
8.5% * 8 outs + 17% * 4 outs = .68 + .68 = 1.36 outs, discounted to 1
With 2-gapped cards (367, 8JQ, etc) (or two single-gapped cards like 357 or 8TQ):
You have 8 cards that give you a gutshot (4 outs)
17% * 4 outs = .68, discounted to .5 outs
I could have sworn the math I saw was cleaner, but that's about the gist of it.
-d
|