Re: How Could He Make The River Call?
Well, mathematically, he's actually asserting by his call that he thinks his five is good about 40% of the time.
I think this is a reasonable assumption, if you can think of the situations where someone who raises his own blind pushes on the river in this hand.
As previous poster said, does AA push on the river here? This may be linear thinking, but the only hands I see pushing here are A7, a full house, or a bluff. A7/boat push here hoping to be called by a weaker seven.
I actually played a hand today that was very similar. I held a very weak hand in position (93s, actually), flopped top pair, and called a small bet on the flop, a small bet on the turn, and a push on the river. Turn and river were the same card... running sixes. I called the huge overbet on the river because I couldn't see my opponent making that bet for value.
Sometimes, assumed folding equity isn't there because the bet simply doesn't make sense as a value bet.
Of course, if you're playing against a tricky player who thinks a few levels in advance, maybe he does have the goods more than 40% of the time?
-DB
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