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Old 12-03-2004, 02:18 PM
ThorGoT ThorGoT is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 30
Default Re: Bubble Aggression Hand Party $30+3

I think the "play for first, settle for fourth" attitude is overrated or, to be more charitable, inapplicable here. Crab has, essentially, a guarantee of making the money, since fourth place has only 10 chips. Once he makes the money, he can play for first without risk. That being said, when he's repopped by the big stack he reasonably should anticipate facing two overcards, with a possibility of a monster and a possibility of a complete resteal. He's looking at, say, a net 45% chance of busting out and winning nothing. Note also that big stack would always make this move with a monster; would ordinarily make this move with a good hand (e.g. two overcards); and would only sometimes make it as a complete resteal. Give it up, wait for the money, take your chances then. The converse of that is that the resteal, even with nothing, is a good play, since crab can't know you have nothing. Unless crab has a monster hand, he should give it up. So big stack can resteal with impunity. I'd say the odds that crab has a monster and is trying to induce an overbet by the big stack are a lot lower than that he made a foolish decision. Now, you might think that if he was foolish once, he might be foolish again (and call), but being put all in has a tendency to concentrate the mind. I like the resteal here, and if I were crab I'd be kicking myself for both my decisions.
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