[AKQJ10]

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Think about it... If there are 6 players to the flop on average you more than make up for the other times when you don't connect with a flush draw.

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Can i see your math for this? I'm too lazy to work it out at the moment but i thought the probability of picking up a four-flush on the flop was something like 1/8. If 1/3 of those flushes get there, then the EV of playing Axs based only on flush potential would be:

- 7/8 * 1 SB (to see the flop -- simplifying assumption of no raises behind)
- 1/12 * several bets (the bets you end up putting in when your draw doesn't get there)
+ 1/24 * the net pot size when your draw does get there
- a little bit for losing to full houses and better

Even granting that it gets a little more value from flopping two pair, trips of your small card with an A kicker, wheel draws, freak full houses and quads, etc. i still figure that you'd need your pot when you hit the flush to average about 20 small bets to make it a wash -- unless there's also some value in the kicker-sensitive hands, top pair and trip aces. Nut flushes take down pots of 10 BBet at times, of course, but not often enough to be an average size i wouldn't think.

All this to say that there must be some value to hitting aces-weak kicker because otherwise playing A2s seems like it can't ever be profitable. As already mentioned, some of the value comes when it keeps you in for a backdoor flush that wouldn't be +EV on its own. Part of the value, which seems to go ignored, comes when you simply have the only ace to make the flop. With only two left in the deck that doesn't seem outrageously improbable, even granting that in many low-limit games any ace that got dealt is going to hang around for the flop (not to mention the turn and river).

Also, aces-weak kicker on the flop is sort of like a five-out middle pair draw. If you pair your weak kicker on the last two cards then you likely have the best hand. If you make trip aces, that's one less ace in opponents' hands to outkick you.

And we haven't even talked about all the counterfeiting scenarios a la Ed's hidden outs chapter....

Of course it's the betting that will really give you clues about how likely each scenario above is, and I don't hear anyone saying that experienced players should automatically fold aces-weak kicker. But it seems to me that if you're going to send beginner players into battle with instructions to fold Axs with anything worse than two pair or a nut flush draw, wouldn't they be better off not playing that hand in the first place?

Thing is, Ed's book doesn't seem to be written for people who are going to need a mindless "flop this hand or else" manual. Even we beginners can get a lot out of the book, but we have to be thinking beginners.