[C Dubya]

If I am wrong here, I'd appreciate some feedback (I'm relatively new but I enjoy trying to figure these things out). I am assuming the following: Each player knows the other's cards. The flop is the decision point, all calculations are based on what happens from that point on.

Strategy 1 - Hero raises all-in on the flop. If he wins the pot, he profits by 1200. When he loses, he is out 900. According to twodimes.net, hero wins .683 of the time. Hero's expectation for this strategy is .683 X 1200 - .317 X 900 = 534.50.


Strategy 2 - Hero flat calls 300 on the flop and one of the following happens.

A. Hero folds when a heart hits (7/45 of the time or ~ .156. His expectation is .156 X -300 = -46.80.

B. Hero bets all-in and villian folds when an ace or a blank hit (36/45 of the time or .8. Hero's expectation is .8 X 600 = 480.00.

C. Hero bets all-in when a ten hits. A ten hits 2/45 of the time or ~ .044. This requires additional calculation because villian now has the odds to call. According to twodimes.net, hero wins .614 of the time when a ten hits. Hero's expectation when a ten comes on the turn is .044 X (.614 X 1200 - .386 X 900) = 17.13.

Add the expectations for Strategy 2a, 2b, and 2c. The total expectation for strategy 2 is 450.33.

Thus betting all-in on the flop is superior to calling and then taking one of the three prescribed actions.