Re: 5-10 big pot at the Bike
Hi Utah,
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I think you push the turn here.
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No way. There's only one unlikely draw on the flop, so if you think your hand is good enough to push on the turn, push on the flop. Not that I think it is. Pushing the turn is a losing play in this spot.
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2,2...is very unlikely given his play - i.e., why would he try to push you off on the flop with 3 raggedly cards?
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Because he's a very good player, and he wants it to look like he's trying to push you off. He knows that he won't get paid off against a skilled opponent, unless they also have a very good hand, so he loses nothing by raising here. Well, he loses riverboat if he was semi-bluffing, but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.
What you're suggesting is to play a big pot with this hand, which I don't think you can profitably do against an expert who has position on you.
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