[Raiser]

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If you have 33 and someone raises PF you are hoping they have a big overpair. That is the perfect situation for a baby pair at these tables and is where you will make a lot of your money.

Hero just got unlucky here and should never worry about set over set at Party unless the stacks get deep.

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Am I missing something here? It seems to me that the opponents stack is not large enought to make this worthwhile.

% chance of flopping a set without him flopping a set ~ 10%.
% chance of him flopping set over set ~ 1.5%

So you call $4 hoping to stack him. What happens?

88.5% you lose $4 at least, maybe more if you call on the turn.
1.5% you lose $68 (his stack)
On the 10% of the times you do hit the flop and get him all in on the flop, he'll still hit an overset ~20% of the time on the turn or river...so your average take here is $51.

Expected results from calling = $.5
EV of call = .5 - 4 = -3.5

This doesnt account for straights, flushes, etc, but I think its pretty clearly a bad call preflop. The opponents stack needs to be almost twice as large for this to be +EV. So as the stacks get larger thats when you worry less about a set over set.

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OK, here are my calculations.

You don't flop a set 88.2% of the time. In those cases you lose $4.

Of the times you do flop a set (11.8% of the time) you will be oversetted by the river 16.5% of the time (1-(45/47)*(44/46)*(43/45)*(42/44)). So 16.5% of your 11.8% is 1.9%. So we'll say that 1.9% of the time you will lose $68.

That leaves 9.9% of the time when you will flop a set and win (not accounding for straights and flushes either way).

0.882*(-4)+0.019*(-68)+0.099*X has to be greater than 0 to make this a +EV call before the flop. That makes the breakeven point $48.46 in this case. So if you think you can extract $49 from the villain when you flop your set then it is a good call pre-flop. That's why you are hoping that your opponent has a huge hand. AA would be the ideal situation.


Edited to fix the overset situation to include the turn and river cards.