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Old 11-20-2004, 04:48 PM
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Default Re: 88 on small coordinated board with a huge field

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Everyone seems to agree to bet on the flop. However, I'm convinced that is completely wrong. See the SSH section on overpairs (185-189). This was a big part of my play that I changed because of the book. If I bet out on the flop, most people will call with ANYTHING even just one overcard because they're getting great odds. Any 9, T, J, Q, K, A, or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would most likely make my hand not good. That concept of giving a free card doesn't really apply here. Like SSH says, it IS +EV to bet on the flop because I have the best hand, but it is MORE +EV to bet on the turn when I see a safe card because I have more pot equity and I reduce their odds to draw, giving incorrect odds to gutshots and overcards.

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I think the question is usually whether it is better to raise the flop vs. raising the turn; not check the flop vs. betting the turn.

Your hand is pretty damned vulnerable, though not as much as you make it out to be -- 9's, T's, and J's aren't really that bad of cards, and diamonds aren't either. As is, you're offering 9:1 to anyone on the flop if you bet, which means they should call with 5 outs or more, but not with hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Checking vs. betting is one argument, raising vs. calling is another. I'm not sure which is better here, but I prefer betting because it gives your opponents limited odds to draw, rather than infinite odds, and it doesn't prevent you from betting the turn, which would give your opponents around 5:1-7:1 to draw.

I'll have to take a better look at this when I get back, but I'm still leaning toward thinking betting is best.
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