[cielo]

OK, given the calculations I provide below you should fold to the $18 bet on the turn.

Here's why:

For the low...

Given that I do not know what your other two hole cards are I proceed as follows,

52 cards - (your 2 hole cards) - (Ah Ax 2h Kd) = 46 unknown
cards

you have

16 outs (4 5s, 4 6s, 4 7s, 4 8s)

so

46 cards left
16 outs

When you win, you win $25 (1/2 of $50)
When you lose, you lose $18 (fold to bet on river)

($25 per winner) x (16 winners) = +$400
($18 per loser) x (30 losers) = -$540
_______
-$140
-140/46 trys = -$3.05 per try

your odds only get worse if you know that one of more of your other hole cards are a 5,6,7 or 8.

Therefore calling for the low draw is -EV



As for the straight flush draw

Cards left 44 (because you don't have the 5h, right?)
your outs 1.

When you win,
you win $50 from pot plus I'll assume you get his entire stack every time, about $90 more at this point, right?

so when you win, you win $140

when you lose, you lose $18 (fold to bet on river)

(1 winner) x ($140) = +140
(43 losers)x ($18) = -774
______
-$634
-$634/44 trys = -$14.41 per try (on an $18 call)Very -EV [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

So, I am not sure how to put these two numbers together,
but I doubt they would end up making you money in the long run.

Regarding the straight flush draw, I also tend to at first think of drawing for them, without realizing pot odds, just because, "Hey, it's a straight flush", however, it's just like drawing to any other nut hand IN THAT it is unbeatable. As nice as that may be, in this case, it was a -EV call. Unless of course I screwed up my math somewhere, which is certainly a possibility.

comments please

cielo