[fnord_too]

Right now, it seems that on line poker is easy money. These situations don't last too long, good players will continue coming in until the the expectation that a capable person can make drops below a certain threshold. That threshold will probably be pretty low since poker is also fun. I don't expect the boom to end so much as the games to get tougher. Of course, growth will slow down.

I think the observation that poker is not much fun if you never withdraw is particularly poignant. If the losing players never make withdraws (even if they amount to a small fraction of their deposits), they will have a much harder time deluding themselves about where they stand.

All in all, I think the fields will be fertile for 1-3 years. After that, I think the game will still have a positive expectation for winning players, but a much lower one; the opportunity just seems too great not to attract enough competent players to drive down expectation.