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Old 11-17-2004, 01:43 AM
reecelights reecelights is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Bristol, PA
Posts: 87
Default Re: blind defense - help!

The number that jumps out at me is the amount you try to steal. You don't get many steal opportunities until the field has been thinned by close to half. With 5 players left, you need to win the blinds 20% of the time to keep pace. With 4, it's 25%.

I steal 27.97% of the time and win 74.36% of those hands. Of course the way I determine when to steal is by predefining a range of hands I will raise 3xBB with IN THE CO OR BUTTON. This is a looser range for me than in MP, and far looser than in EP or UTG. Many are hands I wouldn't call a raise with, but by being the aggressor, you put the other player to the test. You need to raise 3x, or it will seem like a steal. You will get called more if you only raise 2x.

You do have to take some other factors into consideration. You can steal more from tighter players than looser ones. If someone only folds 33% of the time to a steal in the BB, you should probably tighten up a bit in your range of hands, and limp some more to give you an easier exit strategy. If you've attempted a steal three times in a row, someone's liable to get tired of you pounding on them, and need to tighten your requirements. If you want a little more fold equity, you can increase your bet to 4x. If you want to be sneaky and make them think you're sucking them in, you can bet 2x afer betting 3-4x consistently, frequently with a worse hand than you'd normally steal with.

Also, there was a post with a link to an article not too long ago arguing, with some warnings and caveats, that it is mathematically correct to raise EVERY time it is folded to you in the SB, REGARDLESS of cards.

I agree with the previous posters that you should not think in terms of "defending your blinds." That stat is more useful in determining the frequency with which you can steal from other players (see above). I fold my SB 82.48% and my BB 64.05%, and BB HU 62.67%, although I also loosen up my steal requirements HU. Don't think of it as someone making a play on you unless you have a very STRONG reason to suspect that. Even then, you can't call a 3xBB raise with any 2. If you weren't in the blind, would you call a 3x raise with a less than top 10% hand.

Don't forget, once it's in the pot, it's not your money any more. Don't go chasing after it with hands you're more than likely to lose...you're just throwing good money after dead money.

Sorry for the long response. Hope this helps. I would appreciate any comments on this post.

Chuck
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