Results and Thought Process
Hey all,
Thanks for the replies. I think this was a GREAT hand to discuss, and I hope to get more replies (I was disappointed that some of the big guns didn't weigh in on this one). Here are my thoughts:
Generally speaking, I think that this hand can be played in one of two ways. One, try to get the money all-in on the flop against a hand such as an overpair or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J. Two, wait until the river to get the money in and possibly get away from the hand depending on what comes on the turn/river and the action. What I did NOT want to happen was to get some or most of my money in out of position on the flop or turn. So, I checked the flop. Had the original raiser bet, I might have check-raised and tried to induce an overpair to move in on me.
But, the good cold-caller bet instead. In my mind, his range of hands included: a bigger set, a flush, a jack with or without a heart, the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or some other random semi-bluff (e.g. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). I was fairly certain that he did NOT have AA-QQ; with such a deep stack, he would reraise before the flop (especially considering how light the original raiser might be). So, if I check-raise the good player, he lets go of most hands that I beat and pushes with most hands that I don't (he might also push with something like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J). I decided that check-raising was the LAST thing I wanted, because I'm up a creek on the turn if he flat-calls (I'm also not in great shape if he reraises; basically, if I check-raise, I would pretty much want him to fold, and that runs contrary to my philosophy of not wanting people to fold when I have a set). So, I called.
When the turn comes blank, betting never crossed my mind. I made my decision on the flop. I was going to risk losing the pot in an attempt to continue to extract money from a worse hand. If he takes a free card, so be it. I think that a stop-and-go here is not consistent with his range of hands and what he would do with them. When he bet, it defined his hand a little better for me. He had a set, a flush, QJ (probably with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), or a hand containing A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If I check-raise all-in, I only get called if I'm beat. Again, not a situation I look for.
On the river, it was a matter of trying to get value out of a hand that would call a bet but check behind if checked to (A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J) or to try to induce a bluff. In his range of holdings, I thought the bare A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was fairly likely, so I decided to check and hope that he would bluff with it. When he bet, visions of flopped flushes danced in my head, but I clearly couldn't fold. The hand played out how I wanted it to...
My opponent showed A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and I doubled up.
Thanks again for the responses.
ML4L
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