Re: Fold JJ here?
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I think a fold here is a pretty weak/tight play. The raise is typical of these types of SNG, way too big in relation to the blinds. It smells of a small pair or A,9... simply not wanting a call. I doubt you could possibly have been behind at this point.
I would have raised all-in to freeze out the 3rd player and taken my chances. The 3rd player is not quite "pot-commited" and should only call with a premium hand. JMHO
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ok. firstly the raise is less than 10BBs. if i were button id raise here with AA-22.Ak-A2. KQ and so on. i dont think you can possible put him on anything more than two cards...
you would call BUT SB has flat called a third or more of his stack. (apologies, dont have the thread to hand, im going off memory)
he has 3K, hero has 4K and change. the only significant stack on the table in heros point of view just flat called a huge proportional bet.
id like to know if hero has any real reads. but if he doesnt or if the spidey sense doesnt feel right then im folding no question.
if i remember my math its about 25% likelyhood an over card will flop. and what if he bets?
and what if he doesnt and he has us already.
and what if he doesnt but he bluffs his AK all in and hits on the turn or river.
i dont like playing AA three way, so im not playing JJ here. fold. if he knocks the guy out great, if not what can you do, its not a significant point in the game yet that you need to take such risks with your stack.
Phill
ps, one thing thats worth a mention is you may have seen the big stack check down an all in in the past. if so im leaning to a call because its 7:1 you spike trips on flop, around 5:1 you spike by the river and a chance he'll just check it down with you. but even with this thought im still not calling
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