Re: Etiquette
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Hero is in 2nd with a medium stack, up against a chip-leader with about 70% of the chips in play and two small stacks. Blinds are pretty large (the small stacks have only about 3x each). How good does Hero's hand have to be for him to be willing to take on the big stack? I think it is important to remember that in a SNG 1/2/3 get 50%/30%/20%. That means that the value of improving from 2nd to 1st is 20%, but the downside of coming in 4th rather than 2nd is 30%.
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This is a bit general. The exact size of the smaller stacks is important, as the dynamics of the game. But basically, I don't see this as the very rare and extre-special scenario, in which I'd like to fold AA PF (which hans't happened to me _once_, and that's after playing thousands of these games). If I can double up here against big stack, I'm very close to being big-stack. Blinds are big enough to be relevant against the other small stacks, so stealing them is also important. Putting pressure on other specific small stack is another good thing. It sounds like a very regular situation, in which folding AA is a large mistake. Generally speaking, playing for survival is not the best strategy, in most SNG situations. -CEV is almost always -$EV. The rare case of folding AA (and as it's described in TPFAP - and it's only as an example for some concept. IMO, this is one of the way over-discussed chapters in the history of poker books, and it led people to so many wrong conclusions) is when the EV of OTHER bigger stacks busting each other IN A SPECIFIC HAND, is higher than the EV of you doubling or tripling up in that particular hand, and that will happen only when you are a tiny stack, and others push against each other.
Again, as to your original post and thread. I've just read rachel's reply's and yours to her. I think she is wrong when she says it is very close. It isn't. In her 2 EV assumptions she i) doesn't take winning the blinds uncontested [which is a significant part of the EV, for _every_ hand you push with], and if big-stack calls with "any two" as you say (but it is NEVER true), you are still very much ahead in this spot, and ii) she makes a rather problematic use of the ICM, IMO [although she agrees that according to the model folding AA is wrong], which is only a very mechanical tool (it's the independant chip model), and is based upon many general assumptions, one of them is "equally skilled" players. However, folding AA in such a spot is an indication for a rather weak player, which might very well not stand as equal to others, who play more loose aggressive on the bubble (as they should), and therefore folding AA might even be a BIGGER mistake for him, than what the ICM shows.
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