[Irieguy]

I have "sets" of 300+ SNGs at various levels in various games with ROIs of 25% +, and they all contain a stretch of at least 50 with a negative ROI.

My longest streak is the one I'm currently in, which now numbers 77 SNGs with a negative ROI. In my current batch of 300 $55 SNGs, I have two 50-SNG negative runs in addition to the 77-SNG negative run I'm in now... and my ROI is still pretty good.

I would say that it's fair to expect a run of 100 SNGs with a negative ROI in the midst of any statistically significant sampling (500-1000). I would bet that any pro with more than 10,000 SNGs logged has probably seen a bad run of close to 200-250. Beyond that, you are probably stretching the limits of probability.

One final note with regard to bankroll: I've never been down more than 15 buy-ins at a single limit, so I think the generally accepted 30-50 buy-in recommendation is sound. There's a big difference between having an ROI of -4% over 100 SNGs and having a downswing of 30 buy-ins or more. The former is statistically inevitable, and the latter is statistically improbable. Running bad for 100 tourneys requires no game adjustment if you're playing well... but dumping 30+ buy-ins almost certainly suggests a big leak.

Irieguy