[vulturesrow]

Bill Nelson, Florida (D)

Dont know much about his politics honestly, having not been physically resident in Florida for quite some time. I would give even money on him being able to keep his seat. Here is why he can:

1) Retirees make up a large voting bloc in Florida. Generally speaking, this group tends to trend Republican.

2) Now this one is total guesswork, but I would imagine that he is probably moderate Democrat. Given the current political climate in the South, it would be hard to run and win as a hardcore liberal.

3) Many Floridians vote Democrat straight down the ticket, which is a holdover from the old days when Democrats dominated the South.

And why he cant:

1) The days of voting Democrat are probably over, as evinced by the recent election.

2) As a corollary to that, Republicans are quite popular in Florida these days. Jeb Bush has been very popular, witness his convincing reelection for evidence of that. Mel Martinez won the other Senate seat in a close race. Id say the Republican party is on the rise in Florida.