Easy choice
I would stake the gawky Senator. He is certainly the smartest of the two. (Dubya being a Texan qualifies him to be a sucker more than average, as well. The number of Texans who think that, by place of birth alone, are good poker players....)
But Bush would go all-in on every hand which would make this a toss up, anyway.
Now, Poker is not world diplomacy, of course. And Bush employs the same tactic in world diplomacy. This is the most extremely risky strategy possible.
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