Re: kerry by 4
I see it coming down to Ohio and Florida. Four probable scenarios (in no particular order):
1) Kerry wins both (Kerry wins)
2) Kerry wins only FL (Kerry wins)
3) Bush wins both (Bush wins)
4) Kerry wins OH, Bush FL -- this is the tricky one. It comes down to WI, Iowa, and MN. Kerry needs 2 of these 3. This situation is a coinflip basically.
This is also assuming Kerry takes Michigan and Pennsylvania (both likely), and that Bush takes New Mexico (probable) and Nevada (likely).
|