View Single Post
  #3  
Old 10-31-2004, 04:41 PM
jdl22 jdl22 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 609
Default Re: Learn From My Mistake

Let's look at the mistakes:

1. Not necesarily bad, but make sure you don't pot commit yourself if he has what you think he does.

2. Let's take a look at twodimes:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=583893
pokenum -h kc ks - qd qh -- qc 7s 2s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 2s Qc
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 121 12.22 869 87.78 0 0.00 0.122
Qd Qh 869 87.78 121 12.22 0 0.00 0.878

so you were about a 22:3 dog getting 10:3 on your money. You are nowhere near pot committed at that point. If you are confident in your read there is no way calling is +EV here.

How confident of your read do you have to be? Suppose there are two possibilities, he has QQ or AQ. You win 81.4% of the time he has AQ and 12.2% when he has queens. If your read is good with probability p then your hand is good with probability .122p+.814(1-p). We are analyzing the EV of calling 1500 in a 5000 pot. To make this call zero EV set
(.122p+.814(1-p))5000 - 1500(.878p + .186(1-p)) = 0

Solving for p gives p = .835. So if you believe there is a greater than 83.5% chance that he has queens then you should fold. If there is less than that calling is +EV.

So depending on how confident you are in your reads it may not have been such a mistake. It seems that you were well over 90% confident so calling is pretty bad in this spot.
Reply With Quote