[CrisBrown]

Hi umdpoker,

I would be astonished beyond words if any would-be murderer in history has ever engaged in this kind of reasoning. It may be comparatively more likely in economic crimes, where you can balance the chance of prosecution and conviction, and the penalty, against the likely profit. But it's not even remotely applicable in violent crimes.

This is, btw, one of the best arguments against the death penalty. Despite the poorly-reasoned arguments of a handful of researchers who claim to have interviewed prison inmates who say they didn't kill someone out of fear of the death penalty, the overwhelming evidence is that would-be violent criminals simply don't do this kind of reasoning. This is "the myth of the rational, economic, criminal actor" and there is more than ample evidence that it is, indeed, a myth.

Cris