Re: Analysis of when to call down to a turn raise
I think this post deserves at least a reply. You have put some time into this and it is appreciated.
First, I do not think your estimates of M,T and B are accurate. Posters in the other post thought they were. It really does not matter much, as these numbers are dependant on the player and situation.
You have a major flaw in your logic. Simply put, assuming that you will always pay two bets is incorrect. When faced with the decision on the river when you do not improve (assuming your opponent has bet which is not 100%), you will be evaluating your decision soley on B. Using your B=.05, this would be never as the pot will not be laying you 19-1.
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