a general answer
Richie-
I don't feel like doing a lot of math right now, but I think the biggest problem with that plan is that hero is already in for 1/2 his stack. If a third heart comes on the turn, villain pushes, and hero folds a winner when getting 3:1 on the call, this is a huge disaster.
Furthermore, there are a lot more ways for villain to have a small overpair than there are for hero to have big hearts. Lets say villain would raise AA-QQ preflop, and isn't going to call a raise with a weak Axs. This leaves:
Villain has JJ-88: 24 ways.
Villain has AQ-AT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]: 3 ways.
If we assume villain is equally likely to c/r with these two hands (which seems reasonable) then it is 8 times more likely that he has a small overpair.
So this alone seems sufficient to reject that plan. In general, this sort of betting action (call the flop and bet on a turn blank) is more common when stacks are a lot deeper (say, only 25% of your stack is in the pot) and when it is more likely that they are on a draw.
-muz
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