Re: ABC News \"exit poll\" of early votes already cast
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D,
Isn't Texas one of the big early-ballot states?
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AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, IN, IA, KS, ME, NE, NV, NM, NC, ND, OR, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT and WV.
In 2000 Bush received 24,464,219 votes in these states, while Gore received 21,029,384. In other words, Bush won 54.0% of the two-party in these states, while Gore only won 46.0%. Thus, if the ABC poll is accurate, Bush is under-performing his 2000 levels by 2-3 points, while Kerry is over-performing Gore’s level by 1-2 points.
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If that's true, that's very good news for Kerry.
That 3-5 point swing in his direction is approximately in line with the historical average, but more importantly, it's enough to win him both the popular vote and the electoral vote (assuming, of course, those numbers hold up.)
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