[JaBlue]

Hand one: I'd call this turn push in a second - like someone mentioned earlier, its a typical bet with these stacks; don't worry about it being an overbet. Note that I'd say it is possible for QJ to make this move, but that's not the only hand he could have. He's betting 1.5x the pot, so you're getting about 130 - 80 to call, or a little better than 1.5 : 1.

Lets pretend there's no two-flush showing just to show how weak that fold really is:
At this point, he has either 88 99 1010 or JQ. Now if you say its equal probablities for each of the hands, JQ will be his hand only one in four times.

10 outs to a full house ~ 25% chance to win for him if he has those hands.

So if you call every time here, assuming he's three times as likely to have a set in this situation than JQ you get the pot .75(.75) + .25(0) = 56.2% of the time. This doesn't look great until you consider that you only need to win the pot 40% of the time to show a profit.


All this being said, if this was B&M and your opponent gave off some kind of huge tell, it would be much easier to muck. I just don't think that he has JQ enough in this situation for you to lay down profitably...

Also notice I simplified it a little, narrowing his hands down to only made hands... it is very possible he's semibluffing with a big draw here.

-Jared