Re: Doomsday Thereom
When you added these probabilities up to get 68 this was for all values he picked out of the hat. The application you are using in the doomsday scenario is only 1 specific value. When you make the statement if he picks 3 out of the hat there is a 50 percent chance that N<6. This is stating that SUM(P(3 given N = 1 to 6)) is .5. evaluating this sum is competely depenendent on the distribution of N, so for it to be .5 you have to be assuming some distribution of N.
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