Re: I am Very Angry
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Pc = Current Pot ($)
By = Bet(s) you will add to pot ($)
Bo = Bet(s) your opponent(s) will add to pot ($)
pF = Probability that opponent(s) will fold if you bet
pW = Probability that your hand wins at showdown
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Don't forget these other important variables:
Pcb = probability that you have any idea about how to calculate a meaningful result
Pfc = probability I will have asian food tonight
Phb = probability that you remind me of a dilbert character
It's difficult to express the entire equation for calculating Pcb without a proper mathematical formatting language, but thanks to a few well-located zeroes we can skip it and express the unique trivial result.
Don't you inflict enough disinformation when writing in conceptual terms? Mathematics is wonderful and pure and innocent and pained by your touch. In other posts you've adequately demonstrated you don't have even the barest grasp of simple gambling concepts like expectation and inference. Assigning pretty names to a bunch of variables isn't going to help you here. You should stick to a mode of expression that offers you more weasel room.
You spent all that time laboriously manipulating symbols and then handwaved at every part that might help you, oh, I don't know, actually DECIDE WHAT TO DO.
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Estimates: At most one opponent will call, and you will be a 3:1 underdog if called. [...] Answer: Given these estimates, you should bet if you estimate that you will be called less than 39% of the time.
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So just to clarify this a little for me: if we wildly guess that we'll be called by exactly one person and also wildly guess that we'll be a 3-1 dog, then if we wildly guess that we'll be called less than 39% of the time, then we should move all-in? Sounds good!
One of my favorite aspects of the original star trek was that whenever spock was called upon to give an answer, he would have about sixteen decimal points ready. Even when the source data involved wild guesstimations and incomplete tricorder readings, he'd happily (ok not happily, he's vulcan) predict the chances of success right down to the billionth part. This was supposed to make him sound smarter for the folks at home but it just made him sound silly to anyone who had made it through high school science. It's not a perfect analogy but do you see where it's going?
Incidentally, as to the original question: "move in." I offer no mathematical justification but I bet this answer is still way more useful than the one I just finished needling.
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