Re: Two new polls today ...
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Bush ticked upwards in all tracking polls today: Rasmussen, Zogby, both TIPPS, WaPo and ABC.
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True enough. But if John Zogby sees a 47 - 45 spread on his last poll, I think there is a good chance he will predict Kerry to win.
Moreover, many people believe that if you are below 48 you cannot possibly win the EC, if you are above 52 you cannot possibly lose it, but that if you are in the middle, especially between 49-51, then there is a high enough chance of different candidates winning the popular and the EC that the state polls really are the ones to be watching.
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Bush is now 22-1-3 in the last 26 polls. Kerry has led 4 of last 52. In the last 72 polls, the two AP polls are 2 of only 3 that have had Kerry up by more than 2 points.
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Which 26 polls? Link?
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Mason-Dixon was 21 for 21 in their 2000 polls and 22 for 23 in their 2002 polls.
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Link?
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