Re: commerce hand
Would he bet into a wide field with just a flushdraw like KT/QT/T9 – I wouldn’t think so as better to keep people around or chkrs. Would he play that way with TT/88 –no, I think he’d underbet the pot on the turn. But he’s anal so he’s got a good hand – gotta be 2 pair or TP. For 2pair, If it’s T8 or A8 you’re screwed, but again I think those hands bet the turn less to keep you around or show more weakness. So AT of spades or hearts. For TP, figure AK would have raised preflop, so AQ/AJ possible. But that would be ballsy to lead that into 7 limpers.
So he’s got AT of hearts or spades. You’re representing at least the flush, and he’s getting 2.7:1 on a call. So does this tight/anal player think you're bluffing at least 40% of the time; well, probably not. so well played.
How’d I do?
--Greg
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