[elysium]

hi jez

the pick-up on the tell is useless. your opponent may be indicating that he will check-raise, and he may want to encourage you to bet because he may have misread how strong you are and thinks that you might fold a weak kicker, or he may think that he has the lead. you could also be wrong. he might not want to check-raise. or he might have picked up a nut-draw.

this opponent has check-raised you heads-up in the past with nothing but a draw picked up on the turn. you must bet. even if you are sure that you will be check-raised, you still must bet. this opponent will bet into you heads-up on the river if you check it down and a rag hits. then, you would have to call. can you ever fold? yes. when this opponent would never check-raise you without a completed draw when a completed draw is on board. do you have that here? no.

the chance that you're wrong about the tell should give you the pot odds to always bet. you would then base your call on the check-raising habits after the check-raise, not before.