TONY\'S POKERSTAT RESULTS
i knew he had posted this here, but also knew it was archived. i never saw this thread at rgp. good find.
i'm going to reprint the top post here for those that don't bother clicking your link. we can reference this post next time it comes up.
<font color="green">From: Tony H (tony@thsoftware.com)
Subject: Results of flop analysis over Paradise Poker hands
View: Complete Thread (21 articles)
Original Format
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Date: 2002-01-23 10:11:07 PST
Hi all,
I've just completed a starting cards, flop, and board analysis over 37,867
hands I've played at low limits on Paradise Poker. There may be errors in
the calculations here, but I've tried to make it as accurate as possible. If
someone could check the "expected" numbers I've posted, that would be great.
This took a lot of work to finish, and it's been something I've been working
on over the past 1-2 weeks! Hope this is helpful. Here are the results
(warning, lengthy post):
STARTING CARD ANALYSIS:
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
All suited starters dealt: 8982 (23.72%)
All suited starters expected: 8910 (23.5%)
All connected starters dealt: 5980 (15.79%)
All connected starters expected: 5940 (15.7%)
Suited connector starters dealt: 1486 (3.92%)
Suited connector starters expected: 1485 (3.92%)
Paired starters dealt: 2264 (5.979%)
Paired starters expected: 2227 (5.88%)
AKo dealt: 363 (0.959%)
AKo expected: 343 (0.905%)
AKs dealt: 98 (0.259%)
AKo expected: 114 (0.302%)
Any AK dealt: 461 (1.217%)
Any AK expected:457 (1.21%)
A's dealt: 157 (0.415%)
K's dealt: 140 (0.370%)
Q's dealt: 184 (0.486%)
J's dealt: 168 (0.444%)
T's dealt: 183 (0.483%)
9's dealt: 167 (0.441%)
8's dealt: 185 (0.489%)
7's dealt: 182 (0.481%)
6's dealt: 192 (0.507%)
5's dealt: 178 (0.470%)
4's dealt: 186 (0.491%)
3's dealt: 162 (0.428%)
2's dealt: 180 (0.475%)
Each pair expected: 171 (0.452%)
FLOP ANALYSIS:
(Note that only data for hands where a flop was dealt are used.
Hands where no flop was dealt are skipped.)
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
Times a flop dealt when you were dealt cards: 35691 (94.25%)
When user dealt AK, flops at least one A or K: 154 (34.45%)
expected: 145 (32.4%)
USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 8546 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
3 flush:3593 (42.04%) expected: 3554 (41.6%)
4 flush:922 (10.79%) expected: 935 (10.9%)
5 flush:70 (0.82%) expected: 72 (0.842%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:293 (3.43%) expected: 272 (3.18%)
2 flush:4698 (54.97%) expected: 4710 (55.1%)
3 flush:463 (5.42%) expected: 446 (05.22%)
any pair:1470 (17.20%) expected: 1447 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:4453 (52.1%) expected: 4497 (52.6%)
Pair: 3503 (41.0%) expected: 3453 (40.4%)
Two pair:373 (4.36%) expected: 345 (4.04%)
3 of a kind:107 (1.25%) expected: 134 (1.57%)
Straight:32 (0.37%) expected: 35 (0.412%)
Flush: 70 (0.82%) expected: 71 (0.835%)
Full house:7 (0.082%) expected: 8 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 1 (0.012%)expected: 1 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 1 (0.00589%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000654%)
USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 2196 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Underpair (to flop): 523 (23.82%) expected: 515 (23.5%)
Overpair (to flop): 496 (22.59%) expected: 515 (23.5%)
Set:238 (10.84%)
expected: 253 (11.51%)
Quads: 5 (0.228%)expected: 5 (0.245%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:81 (3.69%) expected: 70 (3.18%)
2 flush:1198 (54.55%) expected: 1209 (55.0%)
3 flush:120 (5.46%) expected: 113 (5.16%)
any pair:376 (17.12%) expected: 376 (17.1%)
Hand user flops:
High card:0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 1584 (72.1%) expected: 1578 (71.8%)
Two pair:363 (16.53%) expected: 355 (16.2%)
3 of a kind:230 (10.47%)expected: 237 (10.8%)
Straight:0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house:14 (0.638%) expected: 22 (0.980%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.228%)expected: 5 (0.245%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 2264 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Open ended:219 (9.67%) expected: 194 (8.55%)
Double belly:16 (0.71%) expected: 12 (0.531%)
Straight:38 (1.68%) expected: 29 (1.26%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:77 (3.40%) expected: 71 (3.15%)
2 flush:1224 (54.06%) expected: 1246 (55.0%)
3 flush:132 (5.83%) expected: 117 (5.16%)
any pair:423 (18.68%) expected: 383 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:1143 (50.5%) expected: 1192 (52.6%)
Pair: 933 (41.2%) expected: 915 (40.4%)
Two pair:106 (4.68%) expected: 91 (4.04%)
3 of a kind:38 (1.68%) expected: 36 (1.57%)
Straight:39 (1.72%) expected: 28 (1.23%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house:5 (0.221%) expected: 2 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
ALL FLOPS SEEN BY THE USER:
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:1145 (3.21%) expected: 1137 (3.19%)
2 flush:19715 (55.24%) expected: 19651 (55.1%)
3 flush:1881 (5.27%) expected: 1848 (5.18%)
any pair:6182 (17.32%) expected: 6046 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:17810 (49.9%) expected: 17888 (50.1%)
Pair: 15068 (42.2%) expected: 15082 (42.3%)
Two pair:1786 (5.00%) expected: 1697 (4.75%)
3 of a kind:750 (2.10%) expected: 754 (2.11%)
Straight:146 (0.41%) expected: 140 (0.392%)
Flush: 70 (0.20%) expected: 70 (0.197%)
Full house:54 (0.151%) expected: 51 (0.144%)
Four of a kind: 7 (0.020%)expected: 9 (0.0240%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00139%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000154%)
FIVE CARD BOARD ANALYSIS:
(Note that only data for hands where a river was dealt are used.
Hands where no river was dealt are skipped. This will bias the
data to include only times where a showdown was seen.)
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
Total final boards seen when you were dealt cards: 26216
USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 6293 times):
Four flushes flopped: 729 (11.58%)
expected: 689 (10.9%)
When flop four flush, got flush:251 (34.43%)
expected: 255 (35.0%)
Hand user has at river:
High card:1145 (18.2%) expected: 1097 (17.4%)
Pair: 2673 (42.5%) expected: 2683 (42.6%)
Two pair:1350 (21.45%) expected: 1391 (22.1%)
3 of a kind:251 (3.99%) expected: 273 (4.33%)
Straight:318 (5.05%) expected: 287 (4.56%)
Flush: 411 (6.53%) expected: 410 (6.51%)
Full house:131 (2.082%) expected: 140 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 10 (0.159%)expected: 8 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 4 (0.064%)expected: 4 (0.0663%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00781%)
USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 1685 times):
A set flopped: 197 (11.69%)
expected: 190 (11.3%)
When flop set, got boat or quads:75 (38.07%)
expected: 66 (33.4%)
Hand user rivers:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 609 (36.1%) expected: 598 (35.5%)
Two pair:654 (38.81%) expected: 666 (39.5%)
3 of a kind:201 (11.93%)expected: 198 (11.7%)
Straight:33 (1.96%) expected: 32 (1.90%)
Flush: 44 (2.61%) expected: 33 (1.95%)
Full house:130 (7.715%) expected: 144 (8.54%)
Four of a kind: 14 (0.831%)expected: 14 (0.842%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0160%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00182%)
USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 1678 times):
Flopped open ended: 167 (9.95%)
expected: 144 (8.55%)
When open ended, got straight: 47 (28.14%)
expected: 51 (30.7%)
Hand user rivers:
High card:281 (16.7%) expected: 289 (17.2%)
Pair: 749 (44.6%) expected: 717 (42.7%)
Two pair:361 (21.51%) expected: 374 (22.3%)
3 of a kind:65 (3.87%) expected: 73 (4.35%)
Straight:153 (9.12%) expected: 153 (9.12%)
Flush: 31 (1.85%) expected: 33 (1.95%)
Full house:33 (1.967%) expected: 37 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.298%)expected: 2 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0209%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00110%)
ALL RIVERS SEEN BY THE USER:
Hand user rivers:
High card:4686 (17.9%) expected: 4565 (17.4%)
Pair: 11522 (44.0%) expected: 11489 (43.8%)
Two pair:6039 (23.04%) expected: 6160 (23.5%)
3 of a kind:1198 (4.57%)expected: 1266 (4.83%)
Straight:1237 (4.72%) expected: 1211 (4.62%)
Flush: 806 (3.07%) expected: 793 (3.03%)
Full house:675 (2.575%) expected: 681 (2.60%)
Four of a kind: 48 (0.183%)expected: 44 (0.168%)
Straight flush: 4 (0.015%)expected: 7 (0.0279%)
Royal flush:1 (0.004%) expected: 1 (0.00323%)
- Tony
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