[Richie Rich]

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On that river, he aint calling with Kings, or a draw that he missed and he aint calling with a smaller set (since you woulda heard from him already.)

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Your theory makes sense, but the fact that villain took two minutes to make this call seems to indicate that he DID NOT have KQ for the str8 (even though he actually did). A slowplayed set obviously doesn't seem too likely, either...I would've put him on something like A10s.


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Is checking behind a -EV play in the long run?

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I don't think checking behind scary cards is necessarily -EV, epsecially against tricky opponents in a no limit game. In fact, I'm a proponent for doing so if a flush/str8 card falls on the river, and I was putting my opponent on a draw the whole time. A missed draw won't call, and a made one (or good bluff) will raise.