[edrugtrader]

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well, the book said, flop a set or fold... that was what i was going on.

I hope I didn't actually say that. What page is that on?

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looking back, it wouldn't be in the book as you didn't actually talk about this scenario. i got the recommendation from your preflop charts. i don't have the book with me, so i can't check. discussions with other members of this forum likely led to the "flop or set or fold" justification of the play.

working out the math in the other thread, with a few assumptions on pot size if you win, "flop a set or fold" actually is a break even play to call in the situation (seat 5, 3 bet to you). Therefore assuming superior postflop play to your opponents, this is a +EV play.

My arguement is you are likely up against a bigger pocket pair. even in crazy loose games, unless you know the 2 players to be maniacs, even weak players know enough about position to not 3 bet early with a junk hand or ragged ace. If they have JJ, QQ, KK, or AA it will not be very easy to get them off of their hand. If we are assuming the game is loose enough to warrant 3 bets cold for 3-4 players, then we can also assume KK would call you down even if the ace hits.

With the likelyhood that we are up against a bigger pocket pair, the assumption of "flop a set (and win) or fold" is clouded by the chance that we may flop a set and be up against a bigger set. We also may hit a lowball flop, decide to play our overpair strong and lose to a bigger overpair for a few more bets.

Basically if "flop a set or fold" is break even assuming we win when we flop a set, then adding in the chance of flopping a set and losing or not flopping a set and likely being up against an overpair make this individual recommendation wrong in my eyes.

The arguement spiraled out of control where unrelated issues of rarity and variance came up... but in the end, i think this specific play should not be the "default" play for the situation. i think the default and ONLY play should be fold. the only way it isn't -EV is if player 3 and 4 don't have a bigger pocket pair, or around 2 more people don't call the 3 bets cold behind you (unlikely even in loose games).

If you disagree with this, and don't mind explaining this one specific play, I would love any insight i'm missing. Until then, TT goes in the muck!

funny side note, i actually had TT in seat 5 last night after the lengthy thread. sadly it was folded to me and i picked up the blinds with a raise.