[pzhon]

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Using BruceZ's formulas, with an SD=16 BBs, EV=3.5 BBs (incl. rakeback/propping), and 13% ROR. I come up with ~BR=75 BBs
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Is that 13% ROR close enough to the Kelly point for poker as it is for Blackjack?.

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The calculation is essentially the same. Kelly would say BR = SD^2/edge. 16^2/3.5 = 73.1, so playing at the level where you would have a 13% ROR is just what the Kelly Criterion would recommend.

Of course, your actual probability of having to move down is far greater than 13%. Also, I think you will find the assumption that you can get the same 3.5 BB/100 at higher limits that you do at lower limits to be inaccurate. There is a huge difference between having 2 good players and 3 mediocre players divide up the mistakes of 5 bad players and having 3 good players and 4 mediocre players divide up the mistakes of 3 bad players.

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I know I will need to get lucky somewhere along the way.

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You are lucky every time you win a pot, and you will need to win some pots. However, if you are a winning player as you assume, you will not need to be lucky on average to move up in levels.