[anatta]

So you are getting 2:1. What you are hoping for is Balitimore's D just comes out smoking at home on Monday night. Really shuts them down, sacks, punts, turnovers but no real Defensive/Special teams scores. KC manages a score here or there, but struggles to get to double figures. This might happen 45% of the time.

Then looking at B-more, you are hoping Jamal won't run wild. This is their only real weapon, so they need to keep him contained. Lets say he runs wild (or somebody else steps up huge) 45% of the time (or won't happen 55%)

.55 x .55 = 30 percent. So you need to win more than 33 percent. So I think its close and obviously if you think my figures are wrong (they are, they might not even be that close), or you can think of other variables, then it might be a good bet.