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Old 09-29-2004, 04:48 PM
Dominic Dominic is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 611
Default Re: Drawing Hands and Pot Odds

Okay, I see where you guys are getting confused...you're mistaking the odds of hitting an open-ended straight draw with 2 cards to come (2.2-1) with the odds of hitting your straight on the turn (4.8-1)

You're giving yourself the wrong odds! Unless you absolutely know you're going to see the river card, your odds of hitting your straight are 4.8-1 on the turn AND 4.8-1 on the river. It's only 2.2-1 if you're going to see both cards.

So when you do your pot odds calculations on the flop, you should be doing it only with THE TURN IN MIND. So if you have $30 in the pot, you do not figure, "hey I've got 2-1 to hit my straight by the river, the bet's ony $10, so I should call." No. You've got to say, "It's going to cost me $10 to win $30 on a 5-1 chance of hitting my straight on the turn - I should fold."

Yes, you're approx. 2-1 to hit your straight with 2 cards to come. But if you don't hit it on turn, your odds of hitting your straight are now approx. 5-1.

Don't confuse the two!

Now, I know there are times where you might know your're going to see both cards, or times that you'll raise the flop bet in the hopes of getting a free card on the turn, etc., but if we're dealing with strictly pot-odds, you should almost always be thinking of the next card - and not "with two cards to come."
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