Re: Results
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But I cant see most players check an ace to me here
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I can see checking an ace here being a good play for the precise reasons you checked your QQ: to induce bets from aggressive players holding worse hands.
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I know this would be very bad in 30 buy-in up, but this was a 10.
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For this case, I don't think the play becomes better or worse by virtue of the level, the play becomes better or worse based on the agressiveness of the player involved. In a very strange, almost subconscious way, I think I like your play here. The ace is an action killer. If you bet this flop after having raised pre-flop, villan will fold a hand worse than QQ for sure, and call with better ones (an ace). It's extremely unlikely you can get any ace, even A2o, to fold. Checking is the only way to get money from a worse hand.
So your options seem to be:
1) Gamble he does not have an ace and induce bluffs (or mistaken value bets) by checking, or
2) Stab at the pot hoping he doesn't have an ace, and shut down completely if he calls.
The nightmare scenario for taking line #1 is when your opponent catches a draw from your free cards, but you only have one overcard to fear and the board is fairly harmless.
Can anyone give rationale for an estimate on the probability of the villan having an ace? I think the right answer invovles some Bayesian thinking.
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