Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
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Even if you knew you were a 4-1 favorite, you would still have to fold if you knew that you had a 90% chance to reach 2x your initial stack before you go bust, by not taking such gambles early on. But if statistically you know that you're only about 70% to reach 2x playing conservatively (and I assume a top pro would have a decent estimate of what this figure is), then you should take the 80% gamble right off the bat.
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Are there really people out there that are 90% favorites? That seems so high to me. That would mean folding aces preflop if somone bets all in. That would mean folding top flopped set if there is a flush draw out there that you put your opponent on and he moves all in. I can't imagine even the very best pros being that good...can they?
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